Yangi retseptlar

O'tmishdagi o'simliklar va kelajak


Ko'p yillik o'simliklar atrofimizda o'sadi - dalalarda, o'rmonlarda va o'tloqlarda. Er instituti tadqiqotchilari hozirda katta hosil beradigan va ko'p yillik oziq -ovqat tizimlarini yaratadigan ko'p yillik don navlarini yaratish ustida ishlamoqda. Chorshanba kuni Jerri Glover Oziq -ovqat tankiga qo'shilib, ko'p yillik qishloq xo'jaligiga bag'ishlangan "Kelajak fermalari" eksklyuziv webinarini o'tkazadi.


4 jadvalda: Oziq -ovqat xavfsizligining o'tmishi, buguni va kelajagi

Agar biz Cargillning 150 yillik tarixida bir narsani bilib olgan bo'lsak, global oziq-ovqat tizimi doimo o'zgarib kelgan va ertangi kunning ehtiyojlarini qondirish uchun u o'zgarishni davom ettirishi kerak.

Bugungi kunda bizda fermer xo'jaliklaridan tortib to global aktyorlar tarmog'i qo'llab -quvvatlaydigan oziq -ovqat tizimi mavjud. Urbanizatsiya, infratuzilma, hukumat siyosati, iste'molchilar xohishining o'zgarishi, daromadlarning ko'payishi va iqlim o'zgarishi kabi bir qancha omillar oziq -ovqat mahsulotlarini etishtirish, qayta ishlash va taqsimlashning o'zgarishiga olib keladi.

Dunyo o'zini qanday oziqlantirishi haqida suhbatni davom ettirar ekanmiz, katta rasmga qarash uchun orqaga qadam tashlashga arziydi. Qanday qilib biz bugungi manzilimizga etib keldik? Va ertangi kunning ehtiyojlarini barqaror qondirish uchun nima qilishimiz kerak?

To'g'ri, 2050 yilga kelib biz 9 milliarddan oshiq ovqatlantirishimiz kerak bo'lsa -da, bu oddiy bayonot ko'plab murakkabliklarni o'z ichiga oladi. Masalan, rejalashtirilgan aholi sonining o'sishi global o'rta sinfning tez kengayishi:

Yigirma yil ichida milliardlab odamlar qashshoqlikdan chiqib ketishi kutilmoqda. O'rta sinfdagi odamlar soni O'rta va Shimoliy Afrikada ikki barobar, Afrikaning Sahroi Sahrosida uch baravar ko'payadi. Osiyoda, aholisi qishloq xo'jaligiga qaraganda ancha ko'p bo'lgan mintaqada, o'rta sinf 600 foizdan oshishi kutilmoqda.

Bu yuksalib borayotgan turmush darajasi - bu ulkan g'alaba, lekin u bizning oziq -ovqat tizimimizga ham yangi yuklarni yuklaydi. Qachonki, odamlarning daromadi o'ssa, ular asosiy ovqatlardan yog'lar, yog'lar va oqsillarga o'tib, nima yeyayotganlarini o'zgartiradilar.

Shunday qilib, bu nafaqat ko'proq odamlarni ovqatlantirish, balki ularni boshqacha ovqatlantirish haqida bo'ladi. Bu ikki omilning kombinatsiyasi bizga ko'proq oziq -ovqat kerak bo'ladi. Siz kimdan so'rashingizga qarab, bu biz o'stirganimizdan 30 foizdan 70 foizgacha ko'p bo'lishi mumkin.

Bu qo'rqinchli tuyulishi mumkin, lekin nekbinlikka asos bor.

Agar yaqin o'tmishga nazar tashlasangiz, biz allaqachon ishlab chiqarishni ko'paytirish bo'yicha bu yutuqqa erishdik va biz undan ko'p erni ishlatmasdan qildik:

Bir paytlar, 1960 -yillarda, dunyo aholisi atigi 3 milliard kishidan oshganida, bizning fikrimizcha, bu o'sha paytda biz ishlab chiqarishimiz mumkin bo'lgan oziq -ovqat miqdoriga qarab, sayyoramiz qo'llab -quvvatlaydigan eng ko'p odamlar soni edi. . Akademiklar va siyosatchilar global ochlikdan, ommaviy ochlikdan va ijtimoiy tuzumning qulashidan qo'rqishdi.

Lekin bu sodir bo'lmadi. Buning o'rniga, biz oziq -ovqat tizimining asosini tashkil etadigan asosiy don, moyli va sholi ekinlarini ishlab chiqarishni ikki barobardan ziyod ko'paytirishga erishdik. Va biz buni erdan foydalanishni sezilarli darajada kengaytirmasdan qildik.

Bugungi kunda sayyoramizda 7 milliarddan ortiq odam bor. Va deyarli 11 foizimizda to'yib ovqatlanmaslik muammosi bo'lib qolsa -da, bu etarli kaloriyani ishlab chiqara olmaganimiz uchun emas. Kambag'allik odamlarning to'yib ovqat yeyishini aniqlaydi.
Ammo bu jabhada ham umid bor.

Oziq -ovqat ko'pchilik mamlakatlarda, shu jumladan an'anaviy oila daromadining yuqori qismini oziq -ovqat ishlab chiqarayotgan rivojlanayotgan mamlakatlarda arzonlashmoqda.

So'nggi o'n yilliklarda bu yo'nalishlarning pasayish tendentsiyasi global turmush darajasining keskin ko'tarilishini ko'rsatadi. Xususan, dunyo aholisining katta qismini tashkil etuvchi Xitoy va Hindistonda daromadga nisbatan oziq -ovqat xarajatlari keskin kamaygan.

Agar bugungi kunda qashshoqlik ochlikning asosiy sababi bo'lsa, bu jadval umid baxsh etadi.
Ammo kelajakka nazar tashlar ekanmiz, bizni bugungi holatimizga olib kelgan asosiy omillardan birini eslash muhim: ilmiy yangilik.

Masalan, ilm -fan faqat bitta ekinni yaxshilash uchun nima qilganini ko'rib chiqing: makkajo'xori.

O'nlab yillar davomida AQShning makkajo'xori hosildorligi gektariga 20-30 tupni tashkil etdi. Ammo vaqt o'tishi bilan ilmiy tadqiqotlarga muntazam sarmoya kiritish fermerlar va iste'molchilarga doimiy dividendlar to'ladi. Bu yutuqlar 1920 va 30 -yillardagi yangi boshlangan makkajo'xori belbog'idagi amerikalik dehqonlarga birinchi muhim daromadlarga va shunga mos ravishda daromadlarning oshishiga yordam berdi. Ular nevaralari har gektaridan olti -sakkiz barobar ko'proq makkajo'xori etishtirishini bilishmagan.

Kim biladi, izlanishlar davom etsa, yana qanday yutuqlarga erishiladi? Makkajo'xori hosildorligi bo'yicha jahon rekordi gektariga 500 tadan oshadi, bu 2014 yilda belgilangan ko'rsatkich. Biz faqat mumkin bo'lgan joyni chizib qo'ygan bo'lsak kerak. Kelajakka nazar tashlar ekanmiz, biz dunyoni oziqlantirishda va sayyoramizni himoya qilishda yordam beradigan ilmiy tadqiqotlar va texnologik yutuqlardan voz kechmasligimiz kerak.

Devid MakLennan - Cargill kompaniyasining raisi va bosh direktori. U bu so'zlarning kengaytirilgan versiyasini bu yilgi Jahon oziq -ovqat mukofoti Borlaug Dialogida taqdim etdi.

Bu tarkib homiy tomonidan taqdim etilgan. Bu bizning tahririyatimiz tomonidan yozilmagan va National Geographic jurnalining tahririyat nuqtai nazarini aks ettirmaydi.


4 jadvalda: Oziq -ovqat xavfsizligining o'tmishi, hozirgi va kelajagi

Agar biz Cargillning 150 yillik tarixida bir narsani bilib olgan bo'lsak, global oziq-ovqat tizimi doimo o'zgarib kelgan va ertangi kunning ehtiyojlarini qondirish uchun u o'zgarishni davom ettirishi kerak.

Bugungi kunda bizda fermadan vilkalargacha bo'lgan aktyorlarning global tarmog'i qo'llab -quvvatlaydigan oziq -ovqat tizimi mavjud. Urbanizatsiya, infratuzilma, hukumat siyosati, iste'molchilar xohishining o'zgarishi, daromadlarning ko'payishi va iqlim o'zgarishi kabi bir qancha omillar oziq -ovqat mahsulotlarini etishtirish, qayta ishlash va taqsimlashning o'zgarishiga olib keladi.

Dunyo o'zini qanday oziqlantirishi haqida suhbatni davom ettirar ekanmiz, katta rasmga qarash uchun orqaga qadam tashlashga arziydi. Qanday qilib biz bugungi manzilimizga etib keldik? Va ertangi kunning ehtiyojlarini barqaror qondirish uchun nima qilishimiz kerak?

To'g'ri, 2050 yilga kelib biz 9 milliarddan oshiq ovqatlantirishimiz kerak bo'lsa -da, bu oddiy bayonot ko'plab murakkabliklarni o'z ichiga oladi. Masalan, rejalashtirilgan aholi sonining o'sishi global o'rta sinfning tez kengayishi:

Yigirma yil ichida milliardlab odamlar qashshoqlikdan chiqib ketishi kutilmoqda. O'rta sinfdagi odamlar soni O'rta va Shimoliy Afrikada ikki barobar, Afrikaning Sahroi Sahrosida uch baravar ko'payadi. Osiyoda, aholisi qishloq xo'jaligiga qaraganda ancha ko'p bo'lgan mintaqada, o'rta sinf 600 foizdan oshishi kutilmoqda.

Bu yuksalib borayotgan turmush darajasi - bu ulkan g'alaba, lekin bu bizning oziq -ovqat tizimimizga yangi yuklarni yuklaydi. Qachonki, odamlarning daromadi o'ssa, ular asosiy ovqatlardan yog'lar, yog'lar va oqsillarga o'tib, nima yeyayotganlarini o'zgartiradilar.

Shunday qilib, bu nafaqat ko'proq odamlarni ovqatlantirish, balki ularni boshqacha ovqatlantirish haqida bo'ladi. Bu ikki omilning kombinatsiyasi bizga ko'proq oziq -ovqat kerak bo'ladi. Siz kimdan so'rashingizga qarab, bu biz o'stirganimizdan 30 foizdan 70 foizgacha ko'p bo'lishi mumkin.

Bu qo'rqinchli tuyulishi mumkin, lekin nekbinlikka asos bor.

Agar yaqin o'tmishga nazar tashlasangiz, biz allaqachon ishlab chiqarishni ko'paytirish bo'yicha bu yutuqqa erishdik va biz undan ko'p erni ishlatmasdan qildik:

Bir paytlar, 1960 -yillarda, dunyo aholisi atigi 3 milliard kishidan oshganida, biz o'sha paytda ishlab chiqarishimiz mumkin bo'lgan oziq -ovqat miqdoriga asoslanib, bu sayyoramiz qo'llab -quvvatlaydigan eng ko'p odam ekanligi haqida umumiy fikr bor edi. . Akademiklar va siyosatchilar global ochlikdan, ommaviy ochlikdan va ijtimoiy tuzumning qulashidan qo'rqishdi.

Lekin bu sodir bo'lmadi. Buning o'rniga, biz oziq -ovqat tizimining asosini tashkil etuvchi asosiy don, moyli va sholi ekinlarini ishlab chiqarishni ikki barobardan ziyod ko'paytirishga erishdik. Va biz buni erdan foydalanishni sezilarli darajada kengaytirmasdan qildik.

Bugungi kunda sayyoramizda 7 milliarddan ortiq odam bor. Va deyarli 11 foizimizda to'yib ovqatlanmaslik muammo bo'lib qolsa -da, bu etarli kaloriya ishlab chiqara olmasligimiz uchun emas. Kambag'allik odamlarning ovqatlanishiga etarliligini aniqlaydi.
Ammo bu jabhada ham umid bor.

Oziq -ovqat ko'pchilik mamlakatlarda, shu jumladan rivojlanayotgan mamlakatlarda ham arzonlashmoqda, bu erda oziq -ovqat an'anaviy ravishda o'rtacha oila daromadining yuqori qismini tashkil qiladi.

So'nggi o'n yilliklarda bu yo'nalishlarning pasayish tendentsiyasi global turmush darajasining keskin ko'tarilishini ko'rsatadi. Xususan, dunyo aholisining katta qismini tashkil etuvchi Xitoy va Hindistonda daromadga nisbatan oziq -ovqat xarajatlari keskin kamaygan.

Agar bugungi kunda qashshoqlik ochlikning asosiy sababi bo'lsa, bu jadval umid baxsh etadi.
Ammo kelajakka nazar tashlar ekanmiz, bizni bugungi holatimizga olib kelgan asosiy omillardan birini eslash muhim: ilmiy yangilik.

Masalan, ilm -fan faqat bitta ekinni yaxshilash uchun nima qilganini ko'rib chiqing: makkajo'xori.

O'nlab yillar davomida AQShning makkajo'xori hosildorligi gektariga taxminan 20-30 tupni tashkil etdi. Vaqt o'tishi bilan, ilmiy tadqiqotlarga muntazam sarmoya kiritish fermerlar va iste'molchilarga doimiy dividendlar to'ladi. Bu yutuqlar 1920 va 30 -yillardagi yangi boshlangan makkajo'xori belbog'idagi amerikalik dehqonlarga birinchi muhim daromadlarga va shunga mos ravishda daromadlarning oshishiga yordam berdi. Ular nevaralari har gektaridan olti -sakkiz barobar ko'proq makkajo'xori etishtirishini bilishmagan.

Kim biladi, izlanishlar davom etsa, yana qanday yutuqlarga erishiladi? Makkajo'xori hosildorligi bo'yicha jahon rekordi gektariga 500 tadan oshadi, bu 2014 yilda belgilangan ko'rsatkich. Biz faqat mumkin bo'lgan joyni chizib qo'ygan bo'lsak kerak. Kelajakka nazar tashlar ekanmiz, biz dunyoni oziqlantirishda va sayyoramizni himoya qilishda yordam beradigan ilmiy tadqiqotlar va texnologik yutuqlardan voz kechmasligimiz kerak.

Devid MakLennan - Cargill kompaniyasining raisi va bosh direktori. U bu so'zlarning kengaytirilgan versiyasini bu yilgi Jahon oziq -ovqat mukofoti Borlaug Dialogida taqdim etdi.

Bu tarkib homiy tomonidan taqdim etilgan. Bu bizning tahririyatimiz tomonidan yozilmagan va National Geographic jurnalining tahririyat nuqtai nazarini aks ettirmaydi.


4 jadvalda: Oziq -ovqat xavfsizligining o'tmishi, hozirgi va kelajagi

Agar biz Cargillning 150 yillik tarixida bir narsani bilib olgan bo'lsak, global oziq-ovqat tizimi doimo o'zgarib kelgan va ertangi kunning ehtiyojlarini qondirish uchun u o'zgarishni davom ettirishi kerak.

Bugungi kunda bizda fermer xo'jaliklaridan tortib to global aktyorlar tarmog'i qo'llab -quvvatlaydigan oziq -ovqat tizimi mavjud. Urbanizatsiya, infratuzilma, hukumat siyosati, iste'molchilar xohishining o'zgarishi, daromadlarning o'sishi va iqlim o'zgarishi kabi ko'plab omillar oziq -ovqat mahsulotlarini etishtirish, qayta ishlash va taqsimlashning o'zgarishiga olib keladi.

Dunyo o'zini qanday oziqlantirishi haqida suhbatni davom ettirar ekanmiz, katta rasmga qarash uchun orqaga qadam tashlashga arziydi. Qanday qilib biz bugungi manzilimizga etib keldik? Va ertangi kunning ehtiyojlarini barqaror qondirish uchun nima qilishimiz kerak?

To'g'ri, 2050 yilga kelib biz 9 milliarddan oshiq ovqatlantirishimiz kerak bo'lsa -da, bu oddiy bayonot ko'plab murakkabliklarni o'z ichiga oladi. Masalan, rejalashtirilgan aholi sonining o'sishi global o'rta sinfning tez kengayishi:

Yigirma yil ichida milliardlab odamlar qashshoqlikdan chiqib ketishi kutilmoqda. O'rta sinfdagi odamlar soni O'rta va Shimoliy Afrikada ikki barobar, Afrikaning Sahroi Sahrosida uch baravar ko'payadi. Osiyoda, qishloq xo'jaligiga qaraganda, aholisi ko'p bo'lgan mintaqada, o'rta sinf 600 foizdan oshishi kutilmoqda.

Bu yuksalib borayotgan turmush darajasi - bu ulkan g'alaba, lekin u bizning oziq -ovqat tizimimizga ham yangi yuklarni yuklaydi. Qachonki, odamlarning daromadi o'ssa, ular asosiy ovqatlardan yog'lar, yog'lar va oqsillarga o'tib, nima yeyayotganlarini o'zgartiradilar.

Shunday qilib, bu nafaqat ko'proq odamlarni ovqatlantirish, balki ularni boshqacha ovqatlantirish haqida bo'ladi. Bu ikki omilning kombinatsiyasi bizga ko'proq oziq -ovqat kerak bo'ladi. Siz kimdan so'rashingizga qarab, bu biz o'stirganimizdan 30 foizdan 70 foizgacha ko'p bo'lishi mumkin.

Bu qo'rqinchli tuyulishi mumkin, lekin nekbinlikka asos bor.

Agar yaqin o'tmishga nazar tashlasangiz, biz allaqachon ishlab chiqarishni ko'paytirish bo'yicha bu yutuqqa erishdik va biz undan ko'p erni ishlatmasdan qildik:

Bir paytlar, 1960 -yillarda, dunyo aholisi atigi 3 milliard kishidan oshganida, bizning fikrimizcha, bu o'sha paytda biz ishlab chiqarishimiz mumkin bo'lgan oziq -ovqat miqdoriga qarab, sayyoramiz qo'llab -quvvatlaydigan eng ko'p odamlar soni edi. . Akademiklar va siyosatchilar global ochlikdan, ommaviy ochlikdan va ijtimoiy tuzumning qulashidan qo'rqishdi.

Lekin bu sodir bo'lmadi. Buning o'rniga, biz oziq -ovqat tizimining asosini tashkil etadigan asosiy don, moyli va sholi ekinlarini ishlab chiqarishni ikki barobardan ziyod ko'paytirishga erishdik. Va biz buni erdan foydalanishni sezilarli darajada kengaytirmasdan qildik.

Bugungi kunda sayyoramizda 7 milliarddan ortiq odam bor. Va deyarli 11 foizimizda to'yib ovqatlanmaslik muammosi bo'lib qolsa -da, bu etarli kaloriyani ishlab chiqara olmaganimiz uchun emas. Kambag'allik odamlarning to'yib ovqat yeyishini aniqlaydi.
Ammo bu jabhada ham umid bor.

Oziq -ovqat ko'pchilik mamlakatlarda, shu jumladan an'anaviy oila daromadining yuqori qismini oziq -ovqat ishlab chiqarayotgan rivojlanayotgan mamlakatlarda arzonlashmoqda.

So'nggi o'n yilliklarda bu yo'nalishlarning pasayish tendentsiyasi global turmush darajasining keskin ko'tarilishini ko'rsatadi. Xususan, dunyo aholisining katta qismini tashkil etuvchi Xitoy va Hindistonda daromadga nisbatan oziq -ovqat xarajatlari keskin kamaygan.

Agar bugungi kunda qashshoqlik ochlikning asosiy sababi bo'lsa, bu jadval umid baxsh etadi.
Ammo kelajakka nazar tashlar ekanmiz, bizni bugungi holatimizga olib kelgan asosiy omillardan birini eslash muhim: ilmiy yangilik.

Masalan, ilm -fan faqat bitta ekinni yaxshilash uchun nima qilganini ko'rib chiqing: makkajo'xori.

O'nlab yillar davomida AQShning makkajo'xori hosildorligi gektariga 20-30 tupni tashkil etdi. Ammo vaqt o'tishi bilan ilmiy tadqiqotlarga muntazam sarmoya kiritish fermerlar va iste'molchilarga doimiy dividendlar to'ladi. Bu yutuqlar 1920 va 30 -yillardagi yangi boshlangan makkajo'xori belbog'idagi amerikalik dehqonlarga birinchi muhim daromadlarga va shunga mos ravishda daromadlarning oshishiga yordam berdi. Ular nevaralari har gektaridan olti -sakkiz barobar ko'proq makkajo'xori etishtirishini bilishmagan.

Kim biladi, izlanishlar davom etsa, yana qanday yutuqlarga erishiladi? Makkajo'xori hosildorligi bo'yicha jahon rekordi gektariga 500 tadan oshadi, bu 2014 yilda belgilangan ko'rsatkich. Biz faqat mumkin bo'lgan joyni chizib qo'ygan bo'lsak kerak. Kelajakka nazar tashlar ekanmiz, biz dunyoni oziqlantirishda va sayyoramizni himoya qilishda yordam beradigan ilmiy tadqiqotlar va texnologik yutuqlardan voz kechmasligimiz kerak.

Devid MakLennan - Cargill kompaniyasining raisi va bosh direktori. U bu so'zlarning kengaytirilgan versiyasini bu yilgi Jahon oziq -ovqat mukofoti Borlaug Dialogida taqdim etdi.

Bu tarkib homiy tomonidan taqdim etilgan. Bu bizning tahririyatimiz tomonidan yozilmagan va National Geographic jurnalining tahririyat nuqtai nazarini aks ettirmaydi.


4 jadvalda: Oziq -ovqat xavfsizligining o'tmishi, buguni va kelajagi

Agar biz Cargillning 150 yillik tarixida bir narsani bilib olgan bo'lsak, global oziq-ovqat tizimi doimo o'zgarib kelgan va ertangi kunning ehtiyojlarini qondirish uchun u o'zgarishni davom ettirishi kerak.

Bugungi kunda bizda fermer xo'jaliklaridan tortib to global aktyorlar tarmog'i qo'llab -quvvatlaydigan oziq -ovqat tizimi mavjud. Urbanizatsiya, infratuzilma, hukumat siyosati, iste'molchilar xohishining o'zgarishi, daromadlarning o'sishi va iqlim o'zgarishi kabi ko'plab omillar oziq -ovqat mahsulotlarini etishtirish, qayta ishlash va taqsimlashning o'zgarishiga olib keladi.

Dunyo o'zini qanday oziqlantirishi haqida suhbatni davom ettirar ekanmiz, katta rasmga qarash uchun orqaga qadam tashlashga arziydi. Qanday qilib biz bugungi manzilimizga etib keldik? Va ertangi kunning ehtiyojlarini barqaror qondirish uchun nima qilishimiz kerak?

To'g'ri, 2050 yilga kelib biz 9 milliarddan oshiq ovqatlantirishimiz kerak bo'lsa -da, bu oddiy bayonot ko'plab murakkabliklarni o'z ichiga oladi. Masalan, rejalashtirilgan aholi sonining o'sishi global o'rta sinfning tez kengayishi:

Yigirma yil ichida milliardlab odamlar qashshoqlikdan chiqib ketishi kutilmoqda. O'rta sinfdagi odamlar soni O'rta va Shimoliy Afrikada ikki barobar, Afrikaning Sahroi Sahrosida uch baravar ko'payadi. Osiyoda, aholisi qishloq xo'jaligiga qaraganda ancha ko'p bo'lgan mintaqada, o'rta sinf 600 foizdan oshishi kutilmoqda.

Bu yuksalib borayotgan turmush darajasi - bu ulkan g'alaba, lekin u bizning oziq -ovqat tizimimizga ham yangi yuklarni yuklaydi. Qachonki, odamlarning daromadi o'ssa, ular asosiy ovqatlardan yog'lar, yog'lar va oqsillarga o'tib, nima yeyayotganlarini o'zgartiradilar.

Shunday qilib, bu nafaqat ko'proq odamlarni ovqatlantirish, balki ularni boshqacha ovqatlantirish haqida bo'ladi. Bu ikki omilning kombinatsiyasi bizga ko'proq oziq -ovqat kerak bo'ladi. Siz kimdan so'rashingizga qarab, bu biz o'stirganimizdan 30 foizdan 70 foizgacha ko'p bo'lishi mumkin.

Bu qo'rqinchli tuyulishi mumkin, lekin nekbinlikka asos bor.

Agar yaqin o'tmishga nazar tashlasangiz, biz allaqachon ishlab chiqarishni ko'paytirish bo'yicha yutuqlarga erishdik va biz erni ko'p ishlatmasdan qildik:

Bir paytlar, 1960 -yillarda, dunyo aholisi atigi 3 milliard kishidan oshganida, biz o'sha paytda ishlab chiqarishimiz mumkin bo'lgan oziq -ovqat miqdoriga asoslanib, bu sayyoramiz qo'llab -quvvatlaydigan eng ko'p odam ekanligi haqida umumiy fikr bor edi. . Akademiklar va siyosatchilar global ochlikdan, ommaviy ochlikdan va ijtimoiy tuzumning qulashidan qo'rqishdi.

Lekin bu sodir bo'lmadi. Buning o'rniga, biz oziq -ovqat tizimining asosini tashkil etuvchi asosiy don, moyli va sholi ekinlarini ishlab chiqarishni ikki barobardan ziyod ko'paytirishga erishdik. Va biz buni erdan foydalanishni sezilarli darajada kengaytirmasdan qildik.

Bugungi kunda sayyoramizda 7 milliarddan ortiq odam bor. Va deyarli 11 foizimizda to'yib ovqatlanmaslik muammo bo'lib qolsa -da, bu etarli kaloriya ishlab chiqara olmasligimiz uchun emas. Kambag'allik odamlarning ovqatlanishiga etarliligini aniqlaydi.
Ammo bu jabhada ham umid bor.

Oziq -ovqat ko'pchilik mamlakatlarda, shu jumladan an'anaviy oila daromadining yuqori qismini oziq -ovqat ishlab chiqarayotgan rivojlanayotgan mamlakatlarda arzonlashmoqda.

So'nggi o'n yilliklarda bu yo'nalishlarning pasayish tendentsiyasi global turmush darajasining keskin ko'tarilishini ko'rsatadi. Xususan, dunyo aholisining katta qismini tashkil etuvchi Xitoy va Hindistonda daromadga nisbatan oziq -ovqat xarajatlari keskin kamaygan.

Agar bugungi kunda qashshoqlik ochlikning asosiy sababi bo'lsa, bu jadval umid baxsh etadi.
Ammo kelajakka nazar tashlar ekanmiz, bizni bugungi holatimizga olib kelgan asosiy omillardan birini eslash muhim: ilmiy yangilik.

Masalan, ilm -fan faqat bitta ekinni yaxshilash uchun nima qilganini ko'rib chiqing: makkajo'xori.

O'nlab yillar davomida AQShning makkajo'xori hosildorligi gektariga taxminan 20-30 tupni tashkil etdi. Vaqt o'tishi bilan, ilmiy tadqiqotlarga muntazam sarmoya kiritish fermerlar va iste'molchilarga doimiy dividendlar to'ladi. Bu yutuqlar 1920 va 30 -yillardagi yangi boshlangan makkajo'xori belbog'idagi amerikalik fermerlarga birinchi muhim ortiqcha daromadlarga va shunga mos ravishda daromadlarning oshishiga yordam berdi. Ular nevaralari har gektaridan olti -sakkiz barobar ko'proq makkajo'xori etishtirishini bilishmagan.

Kim biladi, izlanishlar davom etsa, yana qanday yutuqlarga erishiladi? Makkajo'xori hosildorligi bo'yicha jahon rekordi gektariga 500 tadan oshadi, bu 2014 yilda belgilangan ko'rsatkich. Biz faqat mumkin bo'lgan joyni chizib qo'ygan bo'lsak kerak. Kelajakka nazar tashlar ekanmiz, biz dunyoni oziqlantirishda va sayyoramizni himoya qilishda yordam beradigan ilmiy tadqiqotlar va texnologik yutuqlardan voz kechmasligimiz kerak.

Devid MakLennan - Cargill kompaniyasining raisi va bosh direktori. U bu so'zlarning kengaytirilgan versiyasini bu yilgi Jahon oziq -ovqat mukofoti Borlaug Dialogida taqdim etdi.

Bu tarkib homiy tomonidan taqdim etilgan. Bu bizning tahririyatimiz tomonidan yozilmagan va National Geographic jurnalining tahririyat nuqtai nazarini aks ettirmaydi.


4 jadvalda: Oziq -ovqat xavfsizligining o'tmishi, hozirgi va kelajagi

Agar biz Cargillning 150 yillik tarixida bir narsani bilib olgan bo'lsak, global oziq-ovqat tizimi doimo o'zgarib kelgan va ertangi kunning ehtiyojlarini qondirish uchun u o'zgarishni davom ettirishi kerak.

Bugungi kunda bizda fermer xo'jaliklaridan tortib to global aktyorlar tarmog'i qo'llab -quvvatlaydigan oziq -ovqat tizimi mavjud. Urbanizatsiya, infratuzilma, hukumat siyosati, iste'molchilar xohishining o'zgarishi, daromadlarning ko'payishi va iqlim o'zgarishi kabi bir qancha omillar oziq -ovqat mahsulotlarini etishtirish, qayta ishlash va taqsimlashning o'zgarishiga olib keladi.

Dunyo o'zini qanday oziqlantirishi haqida suhbatni davom ettirar ekanmiz, katta rasmga qarash uchun orqaga qadam tashlashga arziydi. Qanday qilib biz bugungi manzilimizga etib keldik? Va ertangi kunning ehtiyojlarini barqaror qondirish uchun nima qilishimiz kerak?

To'g'ri, 2050 yilga kelib biz 9 milliarddan oshiq ovqatlantirishimiz kerak bo'lsa -da, bu oddiy bayonot ko'plab murakkabliklarni o'z ichiga oladi. Masalan, rejalashtirilgan aholi sonining o'sishi global o'rta sinfning tez kengayishi:

Yigirma yil ichida milliardlab odamlar qashshoqlikdan chiqib ketishi kutilmoqda. O'rta sinfdagi odamlar soni O'rta va Shimoliy Afrikada ikki barobar, Afrikaning Sahroi Sahrosida uch baravar ko'payadi. Osiyoda, qishloq xo'jaligiga qaraganda, aholisi ko'p bo'lgan mintaqada, o'rta sinf 600 foizdan oshishi kutilmoqda.

Bu yuksalib borayotgan turmush darajasi - bu ulkan g'alaba, lekin bu bizning oziq -ovqat tizimimizga yangi yuklarni yuklaydi. Qachonki, odamlarning daromadi o'ssa, ular asosiy ovqatlardan yog'lar, yog'lar va oqsillarga o'tib, nima yeyayotganlarini o'zgartiradilar.

Shunday qilib, bu nafaqat ko'proq odamlarni ovqatlantirish, balki ularni boshqacha ovqatlantirish haqida bo'ladi. Bu ikki omilning kombinatsiyasi bizga ko'proq oziq -ovqat kerak bo'ladi. Siz kimdan so'rashingizga qarab, bu biz o'stirganimizdan 30 foizdan 70 foizgacha ko'p bo'lishi mumkin.

Bu qo'rqinchli tuyulishi mumkin, lekin nekbinlikka asos bor.

Agar yaqin o'tmishga nazar tashlasangiz, biz allaqachon ishlab chiqarishni ko'paytirish bo'yicha bu yutuqqa erishdik va biz undan ko'p erni ishlatmasdan qildik:

Bir paytlar, 1960 -yillarda, dunyo aholisi atigi 3 milliard kishidan oshganida, biz o'sha paytda ishlab chiqarishimiz mumkin bo'lgan oziq -ovqat miqdoriga asoslanib, bu sayyoramiz qo'llab -quvvatlaydigan eng ko'p odam ekanligi haqida umumiy fikr bor edi. . Akademiklar va siyosatchilar global ochlikdan, ommaviy ochlikdan va ijtimoiy tuzumning qulashidan qo'rqishdi.

Lekin bu sodir bo'lmadi. Buning o'rniga, biz oziq -ovqat tizimining asosini tashkil etadigan asosiy don, moyli va sholi ekinlarini ishlab chiqarishni ikki barobardan ziyod ko'paytirishga erishdik. Va biz buni erdan foydalanishni sezilarli darajada kengaytirmasdan qildik.

Bugungi kunda sayyoramizda 7 milliarddan ortiq odam bor. Va deyarli 11 foizimizda to'yib ovqatlanmaslik muammosi bo'lib qolsa -da, bu etarli kaloriyani ishlab chiqara olmaganimiz uchun emas. Kambag'allik odamlarning to'yib ovqat yeyishini aniqlaydi.
Ammo bu jabhada ham umid bor.

Oziq -ovqat ko'pchilik mamlakatlarda, shu jumladan rivojlanayotgan mamlakatlarda ham arzonlashmoqda, bu erda oziq -ovqat an'anaviy ravishda o'rtacha oila daromadining yuqori qismini tashkil qiladi.

So'nggi o'n yilliklarda bu yo'nalishlarning pasayish tendentsiyasi global turmush darajasining keskin ko'tarilishini ko'rsatadi. Xususan, dunyo aholisining katta qismini tashkil etuvchi Xitoy va Hindistonda daromadga nisbatan oziq -ovqat xarajatlari keskin kamaygan.

Agar bugungi kunda qashshoqlik ochlikning asosiy sababi bo'lsa, bu jadval umid baxsh etadi.
Ammo kelajakka nazar tashlar ekanmiz, bizni bugungi holatimizga olib kelgan asosiy omillardan birini eslash muhim: ilmiy yangilik.

Masalan, ilm -fan faqat bitta ekinni yaxshilash uchun nima qilganini ko'rib chiqing: makkajo'xori.

O'nlab yillar davomida AQShning makkajo'xori hosildorligi gektariga taxminan 20-30 tupni tashkil etdi. Vaqt o'tishi bilan, ilmiy tadqiqotlarga muntazam sarmoya kiritish fermerlar va iste'molchilarga doimiy dividendlar to'ladi. Bu yutuqlar 1920 va 30 -yillardagi yangi boshlangan makkajo'xori belbog'idagi amerikalik fermerlarga birinchi muhim ortiqcha daromadlarga va shunga mos ravishda daromadlarning oshishiga yordam berdi. Ular nevaralari har gektaridan olti -sakkiz barobar ko'proq makkajo'xori etishtirishini bilishmagan.

Kim biladi, izlanishlar davom etsa, yana qanday yutuqlarga erishiladi? Makkajo'xori hosildorligi bo'yicha jahon rekordi gektariga 500 tadan oshadi, bu 2014 yilda belgilangan ko'rsatkich. Biz faqat mumkin bo'lgan joyni chizib qo'ygan bo'lsak kerak. Kelajakka nazar tashlar ekanmiz, biz dunyoni oziqlantirishda va sayyoramizni himoya qilishda yordam beradigan ilmiy tadqiqotlar va texnologik yutuqlardan voz kechmasligimiz kerak.

Devid MakLennan - Cargill kompaniyasining raisi va bosh direktori. U bu so'zlarning kengaytirilgan versiyasini bu yilgi Jahon oziq -ovqat mukofoti Borlaug Dialogida taqdim etdi.

Bu tarkib homiy tomonidan taqdim etilgan. Bu bizning tahririyatimiz tomonidan yozilmagan va National Geographic jurnalining tahririyat nuqtai nazarini aks ettirmaydi.


4 jadvalda: Oziq -ovqat xavfsizligining o'tmishi, hozirgi va kelajagi

Agar biz Cargillning 150 yillik tarixida bir narsani bilib olgan bo'lsak, global oziq-ovqat tizimi doimo o'zgarib kelgan va ertangi kunning ehtiyojlarini qondirish uchun u o'zgarishni davom ettirishi kerak.

Bugungi kunda bizda fermadan vilkalargacha bo'lgan aktyorlarning global tarmog'i qo'llab -quvvatlaydigan oziq -ovqat tizimi mavjud. Urbanizatsiya, infratuzilma, hukumat siyosati, iste'molchilar xohishining o'zgarishi, daromadlarning o'sishi va iqlim o'zgarishi kabi ko'plab omillar oziq -ovqat mahsulotlarini etishtirish, qayta ishlash va taqsimlashning o'zgarishiga olib keladi.

Dunyo o'zini qanday oziqlantirishi haqida suhbatni davom ettirar ekanmiz, katta rasmga qarash uchun orqaga qadam tashlashga arziydi. Qanday qilib biz bugungi manzilimizga etib keldik? Va ertangi kunning ehtiyojlarini barqaror qondirish uchun nima qilishimiz kerak?

To'g'ri, 2050 yilga kelib biz 9 milliarddan oshiq ovqatlantirishimiz kerak bo'lsa -da, bu oddiy bayonot ko'plab murakkabliklarni o'z ichiga oladi. Masalan, rejalashtirilgan aholi sonining o'sishi global o'rta sinfning tez kengayishi:

Yigirma yil ichida milliardlab odamlar qashshoqlikdan chiqib ketishi kutilmoqda. O'rta sinfdagi odamlar soni O'rta va Shimoliy Afrikada ikki barobar, Afrikaning Sahroi Sahrosida uch baravar ko'payadi. Osiyoning aholisi qishloq xo'jaligiga qaraganda ancha ko'p bo'lgan Osiyoda, o'rta sinf 600 foizdan oshishi kutilmoqda.

Bu yuksalib borayotgan turmush darajasi - bu ulkan g'alaba, lekin u bizning oziq -ovqat tizimimizga ham yangi yuklarni yuklaydi. Qachonki, odamlarning daromadi o'ssa, ular asosiy ovqatlardan yog'lar, yog'lar va oqsillarga o'tib, nima yeyayotganlarini o'zgartiradilar.

Shunday qilib, bu nafaqat ko'proq odamlarni ovqatlantirish, balki ularni boshqacha ovqatlantirish haqida bo'ladi. Bu ikki omilning kombinatsiyasi bizga ko'proq oziq -ovqat kerakligini anglatadi. Siz kimdan so'rashingizga qarab, bu biz o'stirganimizdan 30 foizdan 70 foizgacha ko'p bo'lishi mumkin.

Bu qo'rqinchli tuyulishi mumkin, lekin nekbinlikka asos bor.

Agar yaqin o'tmishga nazar tashlasangiz, biz allaqachon ishlab chiqarishni ko'paytirish bo'yicha bu yutuqqa erishdik va biz erni ko'p ishlatmasdan qildik:

Bir paytlar, 1960 -yillarda, dunyo aholisi atigi 3 milliard kishidan oshganida, biz o'sha paytda ishlab chiqarishimiz mumkin bo'lgan oziq -ovqat miqdoriga asoslanib, bu sayyoramiz qo'llab -quvvatlaydigan eng ko'p odam ekanligi haqida umumiy fikr bor edi. . Akademiklar va siyosatchilar global ochlikdan, ommaviy ochlikdan va ijtimoiy tuzumning qulashidan qo'rqishdi.

Lekin bu sodir bo'lmadi. Buning o'rniga, biz oziq -ovqat tizimining asosini tashkil etuvchi asosiy don, moyli va sholi ekinlarini ishlab chiqarishni ikki barobardan ziyod ko'paytirishga erishdik. Va biz buni erdan foydalanishni sezilarli darajada kengaytirmasdan qildik.

Bugungi kunda sayyoramizda 7 milliarddan ortiq odam bor. Va deyarli 11 foizimizda to'yib ovqatlanmaslik muammosi bo'lib qolsa -da, bu etarli kaloriyani ishlab chiqara olmaganimiz uchun emas. Kambag'allik odamlarning to'yib ovqat yeyishini aniqlaydi.
Ammo bu jabhada ham umid bor.

Oziq -ovqat ko'p mamlakatlarda, shu jumladan rivojlanayotgan mamlakatlarda ham arzonlashmoqda, bu erda oziq -ovqat an'anaviy ravishda o'rtacha oila daromadining yuqori qismini tashkil qiladi.

So'nggi o'n yilliklarda bu yo'nalishlarning pasayish tendentsiyasi global turmush darajasining keskin ko'tarilishini ko'rsatadi. Xususan, dunyo aholisining katta qismini tashkil etuvchi Xitoy va Hindistonda daromadga nisbatan oziq -ovqat xarajatlari keskin kamaygan.

Agar bugungi kunda qashshoqlik ochlikning asosiy sababi bo'lsa, bu jadval umid baxsh etadi.
Ammo kelajakka nazar tashlar ekanmiz, bizni bugungi holatimizga olib kelgan asosiy omillardan birini eslash muhim: ilmiy yangilik.

Masalan, ilm -fan faqat bitta ekinni yaxshilash uchun nima qilganini ko'rib chiqing: makkajo'xori.

O'nlab yillar davomida AQShning makkajo'xori hosildorligi gektariga 20-30 tupni tashkil etdi. Vaqt o'tishi bilan, ilmiy tadqiqotlarga muntazam sarmoya kiritish fermerlar va iste'molchilarga doimiy dividendlar to'ladi. Bu yutuqlar 1920 va 30 -yillardagi yangi boshlangan makkajo'xori belbog'idagi amerikalik dehqonlarga birinchi muhim daromadlarga va shunga mos ravishda daromadlarning oshishiga yordam berdi. Ular nevaralari har gektaridan olti -sakkiz barobar ko'proq makkajo'xori etishtirishini bilishmagan.

Kim biladi, izlanishlar davom etsa, yana qanday yutuqlarga erishiladi? Makkajo'xori hosildorligi bo'yicha jahon rekordi gektariga 500 tadan oshadi, bu 2014 yilda belgilangan ko'rsatkich. Biz faqat mumkin bo'lgan joyni chizib qo'ygan bo'lsak kerak. Kelajakka nazar tashlar ekanmiz, biz dunyoni oziqlantirishda va sayyoramizni himoya qilishda yordam beradigan ilmiy tadqiqotlar va texnologik yutuqlardan voz kechmasligimiz kerak.

Devid MakLennan - Cargill kompaniyasining raisi va bosh direktori. U bu so'zlarning kengaytirilgan versiyasini bu yilgi Jahon oziq -ovqat mukofoti Borlaug Dialogida taqdim etdi.

Bu tarkib homiy tomonidan taqdim etilgan. Bu bizning tahririyatimiz tomonidan yozilmagan va National Geographic jurnalining tahririyat nuqtai nazarini aks ettirmaydi.


4 jadvalda: Oziq -ovqat xavfsizligining o'tmishi, buguni va kelajagi

Agar biz Cargillning 150 yillik tarixida bir narsani bilib olgan bo'lsak, global oziq-ovqat tizimi doimo o'zgarib kelgan va ertangi kunning ehtiyojlarini qondirish uchun u o'zgarishni davom ettirishi kerak.

Bugungi kunda bizda fermer xo'jaliklaridan tortib to global aktyorlar tarmog'i qo'llab -quvvatlaydigan oziq -ovqat tizimi mavjud. Urbanizatsiya, infratuzilma, hukumat siyosati, iste'molchilar xohishining o'zgarishi, daromadlarning ko'payishi va iqlim o'zgarishi kabi bir qancha omillar oziq -ovqat mahsulotlarini etishtirish, qayta ishlash va taqsimlashning o'zgarishiga olib keladi.

Dunyo o'zini qanday oziqlantirishi haqida suhbatni davom ettirar ekanmiz, katta rasmga qarash uchun orqaga qadam tashlashga arziydi. Qanday qilib biz bugungi manzilimizga etib keldik? Va ertangi kunning ehtiyojlarini barqaror qondirish uchun nima qilishimiz kerak?

To'g'ri, 2050 yilga kelib biz 9 milliarddan oshiq ovqatlantirishimiz kerak bo'lsa -da, bu oddiy bayonot ko'plab murakkabliklarni o'z ichiga oladi. Masalan, rejalashtirilgan aholi sonining o'sishi global o'rta sinfning tez kengayishi:

In just over two decades, billions of people are expected to move out of poverty. The number of people in the middle class will double in the Mideast and North Africa, and triple in Sub-Saharan Africa. And in Asia, a region that already has far more people than agricultural resources to feed them, the middle class is expected to increase by more than 600 percent.

This rising standard of living is a tremendous victory, but it also will put new strains on our food system. When people’s incomes rise into this bracket, they tend to change what they eat, shifting from staple foods to more fats, oils and proteins.

So it won’t just be a matter of feeding more people, but of feeding them differently. The combination of these two factors means we will need more food. Depending on who you ask, it could be anywhere from 30 percent to 70 percent more than we grow today.

That might sound daunting, but there is reason to be optimistic.

If you look at the recent past, we’ve already achieved this feat of greatly increasing production, and we’ve done it without using much more land:

At one time in the 1960s, when the world’s population had just crossed 3 billion people, there was a common belief that this was the largest number of people the planet could support, based on the amount of food we thought we could produce at the time. Academics and policymakers feared global famine, mass starvation and a collapse in the social order.

But that didn’t happen. Instead, we more than doubled production of the major grains, oilseeds and rice crops that make up the foundation of our food system. And we did it without significantly expanding land use.

Today, there are more than 7 billion people on the planet. And although undernourishment remains an issue for about 11 percent of us, it’s not because we fail to produce enough calories. Poverty determines whether people get enough to eat.
But on this front, too, there is hope.

Food is becoming cheaper in most countries, including developing countries, where food has traditionally made up a higher portion of the average family’s income.

During recent decades, the downward trend of these lines indicates a massive rise in the global standard of living. In particular, China and India, which represent a significant part of the world’s population, have seen dramatically lower food costs relative to income.

If poverty is the major cause of hunger today, this chart is encouraging.
But as we look to the future, it’s important to remember one of the key factors that got us where we are today: scientific innovation.

Consider, for instance, what science has done for improving just one crop: corn.

For decades, U.S. corn yields languished at about 20-30 bushels per acre. But over time, regular investment in scientific research paid consistent dividends to farmers and consumers. These breakthroughs helped U.S. farmers in the fledgling Corn Belt of the 1920s and 30s achieve their first significant surpluses, and corresponding increases in incomes. Little did they know that their grandchildren would be growing six to eight times more corn than they did per acre.

Who knows what further advances will be delivered by continued research? The world record for corn yields is more than 500 bushels per acre, a mark set in 2014. We may only have scratched the surface of what’s possible. As we look to the future, we shouldn’t abandon scientific research and technological advances that have the potential to help us feed the world while also protecting the planet.

David MacLennan is chairman and CEO of Cargill. He delivered an expanded version of these remarks at this year’s World Food Prize Borlaug Dialogue.

This content is provided by a sponsor. It was not written by our editorial staff, nor does it necessarily reflect the editorial views of National Geographic.


In 4 Charts: The Past, Present, and Future of Food Security

If we’ve learned one thing throughout Cargill’s 150-year history, it’s that the global food system has always been changing, and it will need to keep changing to meet the needs of tomorrow.

Today, we have a food system supported by a global network of actors from farm to fork. Many factors – including urbanization, infrastructure, government policy, evolving consumer preferences, rising incomes and climate change, to name a few – trigger shifts and disruptions in how food is grown, handled and distributed.

As we continue the conversation about how the world feeds itself, it’s worth taking a step back to look at the bigger picture. How did we get to where we are today? And what must we do to sustainably meet the needs of tomorrow?

While it’s true that we will need to feed more than 9 billion by 2050, this simple statement glosses over a lot of complexities. For example, nested within that projected population growth is a rapid expansion in the global middle class:

In just over two decades, billions of people are expected to move out of poverty. The number of people in the middle class will double in the Mideast and North Africa, and triple in Sub-Saharan Africa. And in Asia, a region that already has far more people than agricultural resources to feed them, the middle class is expected to increase by more than 600 percent.

This rising standard of living is a tremendous victory, but it also will put new strains on our food system. When people’s incomes rise into this bracket, they tend to change what they eat, shifting from staple foods to more fats, oils and proteins.

So it won’t just be a matter of feeding more people, but of feeding them differently. The combination of these two factors means we will need more food. Depending on who you ask, it could be anywhere from 30 percent to 70 percent more than we grow today.

That might sound daunting, but there is reason to be optimistic.

If you look at the recent past, we’ve already achieved this feat of greatly increasing production, and we’ve done it without using much more land:

At one time in the 1960s, when the world’s population had just crossed 3 billion people, there was a common belief that this was the largest number of people the planet could support, based on the amount of food we thought we could produce at the time. Academics and policymakers feared global famine, mass starvation and a collapse in the social order.

But that didn’t happen. Instead, we more than doubled production of the major grains, oilseeds and rice crops that make up the foundation of our food system. And we did it without significantly expanding land use.

Today, there are more than 7 billion people on the planet. And although undernourishment remains an issue for about 11 percent of us, it’s not because we fail to produce enough calories. Poverty determines whether people get enough to eat.
But on this front, too, there is hope.

Food is becoming cheaper in most countries, including developing countries, where food has traditionally made up a higher portion of the average family’s income.

During recent decades, the downward trend of these lines indicates a massive rise in the global standard of living. In particular, China and India, which represent a significant part of the world’s population, have seen dramatically lower food costs relative to income.

If poverty is the major cause of hunger today, this chart is encouraging.
But as we look to the future, it’s important to remember one of the key factors that got us where we are today: scientific innovation.

Consider, for instance, what science has done for improving just one crop: corn.

For decades, U.S. corn yields languished at about 20-30 bushels per acre. But over time, regular investment in scientific research paid consistent dividends to farmers and consumers. These breakthroughs helped U.S. farmers in the fledgling Corn Belt of the 1920s and 30s achieve their first significant surpluses, and corresponding increases in incomes. Little did they know that their grandchildren would be growing six to eight times more corn than they did per acre.

Who knows what further advances will be delivered by continued research? The world record for corn yields is more than 500 bushels per acre, a mark set in 2014. We may only have scratched the surface of what’s possible. As we look to the future, we shouldn’t abandon scientific research and technological advances that have the potential to help us feed the world while also protecting the planet.

David MacLennan is chairman and CEO of Cargill. He delivered an expanded version of these remarks at this year’s World Food Prize Borlaug Dialogue.

This content is provided by a sponsor. It was not written by our editorial staff, nor does it necessarily reflect the editorial views of National Geographic.


In 4 Charts: The Past, Present, and Future of Food Security

If we’ve learned one thing throughout Cargill’s 150-year history, it’s that the global food system has always been changing, and it will need to keep changing to meet the needs of tomorrow.

Today, we have a food system supported by a global network of actors from farm to fork. Many factors – including urbanization, infrastructure, government policy, evolving consumer preferences, rising incomes and climate change, to name a few – trigger shifts and disruptions in how food is grown, handled and distributed.

As we continue the conversation about how the world feeds itself, it’s worth taking a step back to look at the bigger picture. How did we get to where we are today? And what must we do to sustainably meet the needs of tomorrow?

While it’s true that we will need to feed more than 9 billion by 2050, this simple statement glosses over a lot of complexities. For example, nested within that projected population growth is a rapid expansion in the global middle class:

In just over two decades, billions of people are expected to move out of poverty. The number of people in the middle class will double in the Mideast and North Africa, and triple in Sub-Saharan Africa. And in Asia, a region that already has far more people than agricultural resources to feed them, the middle class is expected to increase by more than 600 percent.

This rising standard of living is a tremendous victory, but it also will put new strains on our food system. When people’s incomes rise into this bracket, they tend to change what they eat, shifting from staple foods to more fats, oils and proteins.

So it won’t just be a matter of feeding more people, but of feeding them differently. The combination of these two factors means we will need more food. Depending on who you ask, it could be anywhere from 30 percent to 70 percent more than we grow today.

That might sound daunting, but there is reason to be optimistic.

If you look at the recent past, we’ve already achieved this feat of greatly increasing production, and we’ve done it without using much more land:

At one time in the 1960s, when the world’s population had just crossed 3 billion people, there was a common belief that this was the largest number of people the planet could support, based on the amount of food we thought we could produce at the time. Academics and policymakers feared global famine, mass starvation and a collapse in the social order.

But that didn’t happen. Instead, we more than doubled production of the major grains, oilseeds and rice crops that make up the foundation of our food system. And we did it without significantly expanding land use.

Today, there are more than 7 billion people on the planet. And although undernourishment remains an issue for about 11 percent of us, it’s not because we fail to produce enough calories. Poverty determines whether people get enough to eat.
But on this front, too, there is hope.

Food is becoming cheaper in most countries, including developing countries, where food has traditionally made up a higher portion of the average family’s income.

During recent decades, the downward trend of these lines indicates a massive rise in the global standard of living. In particular, China and India, which represent a significant part of the world’s population, have seen dramatically lower food costs relative to income.

If poverty is the major cause of hunger today, this chart is encouraging.
But as we look to the future, it’s important to remember one of the key factors that got us where we are today: scientific innovation.

Consider, for instance, what science has done for improving just one crop: corn.

For decades, U.S. corn yields languished at about 20-30 bushels per acre. But over time, regular investment in scientific research paid consistent dividends to farmers and consumers. These breakthroughs helped U.S. farmers in the fledgling Corn Belt of the 1920s and 30s achieve their first significant surpluses, and corresponding increases in incomes. Little did they know that their grandchildren would be growing six to eight times more corn than they did per acre.

Who knows what further advances will be delivered by continued research? The world record for corn yields is more than 500 bushels per acre, a mark set in 2014. We may only have scratched the surface of what’s possible. As we look to the future, we shouldn’t abandon scientific research and technological advances that have the potential to help us feed the world while also protecting the planet.

David MacLennan is chairman and CEO of Cargill. He delivered an expanded version of these remarks at this year’s World Food Prize Borlaug Dialogue.

This content is provided by a sponsor. It was not written by our editorial staff, nor does it necessarily reflect the editorial views of National Geographic.


In 4 Charts: The Past, Present, and Future of Food Security

If we’ve learned one thing throughout Cargill’s 150-year history, it’s that the global food system has always been changing, and it will need to keep changing to meet the needs of tomorrow.

Today, we have a food system supported by a global network of actors from farm to fork. Many factors – including urbanization, infrastructure, government policy, evolving consumer preferences, rising incomes and climate change, to name a few – trigger shifts and disruptions in how food is grown, handled and distributed.

As we continue the conversation about how the world feeds itself, it’s worth taking a step back to look at the bigger picture. How did we get to where we are today? And what must we do to sustainably meet the needs of tomorrow?

While it’s true that we will need to feed more than 9 billion by 2050, this simple statement glosses over a lot of complexities. For example, nested within that projected population growth is a rapid expansion in the global middle class:

In just over two decades, billions of people are expected to move out of poverty. The number of people in the middle class will double in the Mideast and North Africa, and triple in Sub-Saharan Africa. And in Asia, a region that already has far more people than agricultural resources to feed them, the middle class is expected to increase by more than 600 percent.

This rising standard of living is a tremendous victory, but it also will put new strains on our food system. When people’s incomes rise into this bracket, they tend to change what they eat, shifting from staple foods to more fats, oils and proteins.

So it won’t just be a matter of feeding more people, but of feeding them differently. The combination of these two factors means we will need more food. Depending on who you ask, it could be anywhere from 30 percent to 70 percent more than we grow today.

That might sound daunting, but there is reason to be optimistic.

If you look at the recent past, we’ve already achieved this feat of greatly increasing production, and we’ve done it without using much more land:

At one time in the 1960s, when the world’s population had just crossed 3 billion people, there was a common belief that this was the largest number of people the planet could support, based on the amount of food we thought we could produce at the time. Academics and policymakers feared global famine, mass starvation and a collapse in the social order.

But that didn’t happen. Instead, we more than doubled production of the major grains, oilseeds and rice crops that make up the foundation of our food system. And we did it without significantly expanding land use.

Today, there are more than 7 billion people on the planet. And although undernourishment remains an issue for about 11 percent of us, it’s not because we fail to produce enough calories. Poverty determines whether people get enough to eat.
But on this front, too, there is hope.

Food is becoming cheaper in most countries, including developing countries, where food has traditionally made up a higher portion of the average family’s income.

During recent decades, the downward trend of these lines indicates a massive rise in the global standard of living. In particular, China and India, which represent a significant part of the world’s population, have seen dramatically lower food costs relative to income.

If poverty is the major cause of hunger today, this chart is encouraging.
But as we look to the future, it’s important to remember one of the key factors that got us where we are today: scientific innovation.

Consider, for instance, what science has done for improving just one crop: corn.

For decades, U.S. corn yields languished at about 20-30 bushels per acre. But over time, regular investment in scientific research paid consistent dividends to farmers and consumers. These breakthroughs helped U.S. farmers in the fledgling Corn Belt of the 1920s and 30s achieve their first significant surpluses, and corresponding increases in incomes. Little did they know that their grandchildren would be growing six to eight times more corn than they did per acre.

Who knows what further advances will be delivered by continued research? The world record for corn yields is more than 500 bushels per acre, a mark set in 2014. We may only have scratched the surface of what’s possible. As we look to the future, we shouldn’t abandon scientific research and technological advances that have the potential to help us feed the world while also protecting the planet.

David MacLennan is chairman and CEO of Cargill. He delivered an expanded version of these remarks at this year’s World Food Prize Borlaug Dialogue.

This content is provided by a sponsor. It was not written by our editorial staff, nor does it necessarily reflect the editorial views of National Geographic.


Videoni tomosha qiling: Агрострахування (Oktyabr 2021).